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Scenario planning

Scenario planning is a tool that helps decision-makers and communities prepare for uncertain climate futures by imagining different possible scenarios and planning how to respond. In small island states this method is especially useful because climate impacts can be sudden and severe. By exploring a range of future possibilities, local governments and stakeholders can identify vulnerabilities and create flexible strategies that work under different conditions. For example, scenario planning can guide decisions about where to build infrastructure, how to protect coastal areas, or how to manage water resources. It encourages creative thinking and helps avoid relying on one prediction, which may turn out to be wrong. This approach strengthens resilience by making plans that are robust, adaptable, and inclusive of local knowledge and priorities. Scenario planning often builds upon other adaptation tools such as vulnerability and risk assessments, and hazard mapping. 

Feasibility & Local Applicability

While it helps communities prepare for different climate futures, scenario planning cannot eliminate uncertainty or predict exact outcomes. The process can be time-consuming and may require technical expertise and broad stakeholder involvement, which can be challenging for small island states with limited resources. If key voices—like local communities or vulnerable groups—are not included, the scenarios may miss important insights. Additionally, turning scenarios into real-world actions can be difficult, especially when political support or funding is lacking. Finally, scenarios may oversimplify complex climate systems, potentially overlooking unexpected changes or interactions.

Co-benefits

Scenario planning, apart from being a decision support tool, also increases awareness among all stakeholders about future risks, vulnerabilities and opportunities. It encourages collaboration and creative thinking. As scenario planning is a highly participatory method, it also can bring increased levels of mutual understanding. Especially at local levels, it can help towards building consensus. Finally, scenario planning can uncover critical unknows or uncertainties that require new research or increased monitoring. 

Equity & Vulnerability Considerations

Scenario planning is most successful when all different stakeholders engaged and marginalized perspectives are incorporated. Scenario planning should consider how different futures might affect vulnerable groups differently, and aim to reduce existing inequalities.

Costs

Medium - High | Costs may include hiring facilitators, conducting workshops, gathering climate data, and engaging communities. These exercises often require technical expertise, time, and coordination across sectors, which can be resource-intensive. While exact figures are rarely published, scenario planning is generally considered a moderate to high-cost adaptation tool, especially when done thoroughly and inclusively.  

Case-studies & Examples

Literature

Adaptation Options Overview